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The Big Picture
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Three federal actions on December 11, 2025—and fresh labor data for September 2025—are pushing Washington toward stronger, centralized oversight of markets, technology, and health payments. The White House issued two executive orders: one that singles out proxy advisory firms (naming Institutional Shareholder Services and Glass, Lewis as controlling “more than 90%” of the market) and tells the SEC, FTC, DOJ, and Labor Department to re‑examine rules, enforcement, registration, antitrust risks, and fiduciary duties that affect how investors — including retirement plans — get voting advice; and a second that seeks to stop states from setting their own AI rules by creating an “AI Litigation Task Force” within 30 days, ordering Commerce to review state AI laws within 90 days, and threatening to withhold some BEAD broadband funds from states with laws the administration deems obstructive. CMS separately proposed tightening the IOTA transplant payment model (effective Performance Year 2 on July 1, 2026, with some notice requirements starting July 1, 2027), raising the minimum annual adult kidney transplant floor from 11 to 15, adding risk adjustment, changing bonus/penalty bands (bonuses up to $15,000 per Medicare transplant; penalties up to $2,000), and adding new patient notice rules (comments due February 9, 2026). And the labor market shows only modest change: the national unemployment rate was 4.4% in September 2025 (up 0.3 points from a year earlier), with uneven state job gains and losses.
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Why this matters: together these moves signal a shift from a hands‑off, state‑by‑state or market‑led approach toward active federal steering using rulemaking, enforcement, funding conditions, and payment incentives. If agencies follow through, proxy advisers could face new registration or disclosure requirements, companies and retirement plans may see different voting advice, states could be sued or lose federal broadband money if their AI laws are judged incompatible with the federal line, and about 103 transplant hospitals will face higher volume requirements and new financial risks or rewards starting July 2026. That outcome is not automatic — much depends on future rulemaking, agency reports, and court fights — but the timelines are concrete: 30 days for the AG task force, 90 days for Commerce and other agency reviews, February 9, 2026 for CMS comment deadline, and July 1, 2026/2027 for IOTA changes to take effect.
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Pattern to Watch
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A clear pattern is federal consolidation of power over private markets, state regulation, and healthcare payments, signaled by multiple, concrete steps: multi‑agency directives in the proxy‑advisor order (SEC, FTC, DOJ, Labor), an AG‑led litigation force to preempt state AI laws within 30 days and Commerce’s 90‑day review tied to BEAD funding, and CMS moving Medicare payments to steer transplant behavior with a July 1, 2026 start. If agencies publish rule proposals, require proxy advisers to register, the Commerce Department denies BEAD funds to specific states, the AG sues a state over AI law, or CMS finalizes and enforces the IOTA penalties/bonuses after the Feb. 9, 2026 comment deadline, this pattern will have escalated into sustained federal action. That trend would raise compliance costs and legal risk for companies, reshape how states regulate AI, influence how investors get voting advice (and possibly corporate decisions), and change incentives for hospitals — with measurable impacts on budgets, business planning, and patient access.
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